30 Dec
2011
While reading The Innovator's Dilemma I've had some interesting thoughts regarding the iPhone vs. Android debate. I've decided that Android is positioning itself in the wrong market.
I believe this is true whether you feel that iPhone or Android is better. It all comes down to where each of the phones is positioning itself in the market.
As I watch all of the commercials on TV it becomes really apparent that the Android "movement" is trying to unseat the iPhone from its position as the "favorite" smartphone among consumers. They try to flash numbers to show how Android devices have bigger screens, faster processors, Google e-mail (no way!) and (at least until a few weeks ago) how Android devices offer Flash.
You can insert your own trite arguments here.... because everyone really knows that iPhones are really what most people want. They don't care about any of those other features when it comes down to it. This is a secret truth that avid Android supporters don't like to admit.
But according to a very valuable principle in the Innovator's Dilemma, this feature-comparison approach is the wrong way to try and disrupt the iPhone-dominated smartphone market. In a best-case scenario this will only result in a war of attrition -- where both sides get bloody and no one wins. In a worst case scenario, customers will keep their loyalty to the iPhone and Android loses in the end. Take your pick.
The Innovator's Dilemma teaches another approach. Since the iPhone has already positioned itself in the upper end of the smartphone market, Android needs to position itself in the lower end in order to properly disrupt the upper markets in the future. Don't compete in elegance with the iPhone right away -- customers in that segment of the market aren't interested in your plastic phones anyway.
Android should use its lack of features to its advantage. It should position itself as a super cheap, entry-level smartphone that anyone can afford. Price it at $49 with no contract. Negotiate with the carriers to offer 3G data on a pay-as-you-go basis similar to the iPad. Sales will explode, and smartphones will even be in the hands of the boy who pushes the plow.
Hasn't Android learned any lessons from the $99 Touchpad? There's not just crazy demand for cheap tablets, but cheap smartphones too. People won't even try to compare it to the iPhone when they know it's supposed to be a simple, cheap, and reliable way to have basic smartphone functionality.
And then, in true Innovator's Dilemma fashion, the Android devices can move upmarket and disrupt the iPhone's segment of the market. That's because the Android OS will improve over time and will finally be able to offer the same elegance and quality that has been present in the iPhone on Day 1. That's the question that everyone keeps trying to address whenever the next Buffalo Chicken Sandwich update comes out, isn't it? Has the Android OS finally reached the polish of iOS?
When Android does reach that point, customers will finally be able to make an apples-to-apples comparison between phones (sorry for the pun).
So I guess the real question is... will Android manufacturers ever pivot to focus on the lower market segments?
Absolutely not. Here's why.
Android is too fragmented. There isn't a single company driving the overall strategy for Android. The result is a confusing smattering of random products created by a multiplicity of manufacturers. This effectively kills any possibility of coordinated attack on the iPhone.
Carriers won't cooperate. There is no way the carriers are going to support lower-margin phones such as the ones I've proposed. The carriers have a need to show ever-increasing profits and, therefore, need to find ever-greater margins on the phones that they are selling. Offering a fifty-dollar phone without a contract isn't going to do this. And you can be certain that without the bargaining power that Apple has, no Android manufacturer will be able to negotiate a pay-as-you-go 3G contract for a smartphone.
Cash flow is good enough right now. It seems like the Android manufacturers are content to wage a war of attrition with Apple. They just don't realize it's a losing battle, especially when the iPhone leapfrogs everyone again when the new version comes out (this year? next year?). Besides, pivoting to the lower market segments on the outside appears to be riskier business -- because we don't have any hard numbers on just how big that lower-end smartphone market could be.
But it could be really huge. And it could offer disruption of the upper-end market later. That's the risk you have to take.
And that my friends is the true innovator's dilemma.